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Smart Money? The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders
Dwight R. Sanders, Scott H. Irwin, and Robert Merrin
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The forecasting ability of the Commodity Futures Trading Commissionís Commitmentís of Traders data set is investigated. Bivariate Granger causality tests show very little evidence that tradersí positions are useful in forecasting (leading) market returns.

 
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Inventory and Transformation Hedging Effectiveness in Corn Crushing
Roger A. Dahlgran
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

In response to the development of the U.S. ethanol industry, the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) launched the ethanol futures contract in March 2005. This contract is promoted by the CBOT as allowing ethanol producers to hedge corn crushing using strategies

 
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Economics of Increased Beef Grader Accuracy
Maro A. Ibarburu, John D. Lawrence, and Darrell Busby
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

Carcass data from more than 38,000 cattle was used to compare the called and measured yield grade in two different periods: before and after the slaughter plant incorporated another grader in the line to improve grading accuracy. The study shows that the

 
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Impacts of Alternative Marketing Agreement Cattle Procurement Volumes on Packer Costs: Evidence from Plant-Level P&L Data
Stephen R. Koontz, Mary K. Muth, and John D. Lawrence
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

It has been argued that access to captive supply cattle improve the economic efficiency of beef packing facilities. However, this argument has not been subject to hypothesis testing. This work models the cost efficiencies associated with captive supplies

 
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Economic Analysis of Pharmaceutical Technologies in Modern Beef Production
John D. Lawrence and Maro A. Ibarburu
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

Cattle production is the largest single agricultural sector in the U.S. with cash receipts of $49.2 billion in 2005. Like the rest of agriculture cattle producers have adopted efficiency and quality improving technology to meet consumer demands for a safe

 
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Meat Processors Purchasing and Sale Practices: Lessons Learned from the GIPSA Livestock and Meat Marketing Study
John D. Lawrence, Mary K. Muth, Justin Taylor, and Stephen R. Koontz
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The meat value chain is a complex organization with multiple participants performing numerous value added functions. Perhaps the most complex and least well understood segment is that downstream from the packer, e.g., the processor, wholesaler, exporter,

 
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Information Content in Deferred Futures Prices: Live Cattle and Hogs
Dwight R. Sanders, Philip Garcia, and Mark R. Manfredo
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The marginal forecast information contained in deferred futures prices is evaluated using the direct test of Vuchelen and Gutierrez. In particular, the informational role of deferred futures contracts in live cattle and hogs is assessed from the two- to t

 
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Do Big Crops Get Bigger and Small Crops Get Smaller? Further Evidence on Smoothing in USDA Crop Production Forecasts
Olga Isengildina-Massa, Scott H. Irwin, and Darrel L. Good
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether smoothing in USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is concentrated in years with relatively small and large crops. The sample consists of all USDA corn and soybean production forecasts released over t

 
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The Cattle Price Cycle: An Exploration in Simulation
Matthew C. Stockton and Larry W. Van Tassell
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The simulation of commodity prices has been undertaken using a myriad of techniques, with some omitting the cyclical component and others ignoring the presence of inter-temporal relationships expressed as autoregressive errors. This study examines the per

 
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The Effect of Ethanol Production on the U.S. National Corn Price
Hwanil Park and T. Randall Fortenbery
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

A system of equations representing corn supply, feed demand, export demand, food, alcohol and industrial (FAI) demand, and corn price is estimated by three-stage least squares. A price dependent reduced form equation is then formed to investigate the effe

 
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Cross-Hedging Distillers Dried Grains: Exploring Corn and Soybean Meal Futures Contracts
Adam Brinker, Joe Parcell, and Kevin Dhuyvetter
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

Ethanol mandates and high fuel prices have led to an increase in the number of ethanol plants in the U.S. in recent years. In turn, this has led to an increase in the production of distillers dried grains (DDGs) as a co-product of ethanol production. DDG

 
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Measuring the Influence of Commodity Fund Trading on Soybean Price Discovery
Gerald Plato and Linwood Hoffman
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The increase in commodity fund trading in the agricultural commodity futures markets has raised concern that this trading is degrading the price discovery performance of these markets. We used the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition procedure to estimate the p

 
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Insights into Trader Behavior: Risk Aversion and Probability Weighting
Fabio Mattos, Philip Garcia, and Joost M.E. Pennings
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate how professional traders in futures and options markets behave under risk and uncertainty. Our preliminary findings suggest that most traders exhibit concave utility functions for gains and convex utility fu

 
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Profit Margin Hedging
Hyun Seok Kim, B. Wade Brorsen, and Kim B. Anderson
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

Some extension economists and others often recommend profit margin hedging in choosing the timing of crop sales. This paper determines producerís utility function and price processes where profit margin hedging is optimal. Profit margin hedging is shown t

 
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Implicit Value of Retail Beef Brands and Retail Meat Product Attributes
Jennifer M. Dutton, Clement E. Ward, and Jayson L. Lusk
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

Consumers reveal preferences for fresh beef attributes through their retail beef purchases. Hedonic pricing methods were used to estimate the value consumers place on observable characteristics of fresh beef products, especially on retail beef brands. Pri

 
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Measuring Liquidity Costs in Agricultural Futures Markets
Julieta Frank and Philip Garcia
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

Estimation of liquidity costs in agricultural futures markets is challenging because bid-ask spreads are usually not observed. Spread estimators that use transaction data are available, but little agreement exists on their relative accuracy and performanc

 
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To What Surprises Do Hog Futures Markets Respond?
Julieta Frank, Philip Garcia, and Scott Irwin
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

We re-assess the effect of new information contained in the Hogs and Pigs Reports (HPR) focusing on the rationality of the announcements. We find that HPR preliminary numbers are irrational estimates of the final numbers and market expectations before the

 
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Economically Optimal Distiller Grain Inclusion in Beef Feedlot Rations: Recognition of Omitted Factors
Crystal Jones, Glynn Tonsor, Roy Black, and Steven Rust
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

With the rapid expansion of the ethanol industry, the feeding landscape familiar to the feedlot industry is changing. While concerns regarding rising corn prices persist, many within the industry are looking at distillerís grains, a by-product of ethanol

 
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Using Basis and Futures Prices as a Barometer in Deciding Whether to Store Grain or Not
Mounir Siaplay , Kim B. Anderson, and B.Wade Brorsen
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to determine the importance of the strength and weakness of basis and futures prices as barometers for producers to use in deciding whether to store or not. Basis is the single most important market signal for wheat producer

 
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Meat Slaughter and Processing Plantsí Traceability Levels Evidence From Iowa
Harun Bulut and John D. Lawrence
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

In the United States (U.S.), there is no uniform traceability regulation across food sector. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) implemented one-step back and one-step forward traceability over the industries under its jurisdiction. U.S. Department of Agri

 
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Outlook vs. Futures: Three Decades of Evidence in Hog and Cattle Markets
Evelyn V. Colino and Scott H. Irwin
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy of outlook forecasts relative to futures prices in hog and cattle markets. Published forecasts from four prominent livestock outlook programs are available for analysis.

 
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Differences in Prices and Price Risk across Alternative Marketing Arrangements Used in the Fed Cattle Industry
Mary K. Muth, Yanyan Liu, Stephen R. Koontz, and John D. Lawrence
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

Information on typical differences in prices and price risk (as measured by the variances of prices) across marketing arrangements aids fed cattle producers in making choices about methods to use for selling fed cattle to beef packers. This information

 
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The Impact of Measurement Error on Estimates of the Price Reaction to USDA Crop Reports
Nicole M. Aulerich, Scott H. Irwin, and Carl H. Nelson
Year: 2007
 

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of USDA crop production reports in corn and soybean futures markets. The analysis is based on all corn and soybean production reports released over 1970-2006. The empirical analysis compares the typical OLS event study a

 
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