NCCC-134
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Market Efficiency and Marketing to Enhance Income of Crop Producers
Carl R. Zulauf and Scott H. Irwin
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Recent changes in farm policy have renewed interest in using marketing strategies based on futures and options markets to enhance the income of crop producers. This article reviews the literature surrounding the dominant academic theory of the behavior of

 
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Can Pre-harvest Marketing Strategies Increase Net Returns for Corn and Soybean Growers?
Robert N. Wisner, E. Neal Blue, and E. Dean Baldwin
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Grain producers price grain prior to harvest to reduce financial risk and to enhance net returns. Since accomplishing the second objective is debatable, alternative corn and soybean pre-harvest options/hedge marketing strategies were designed to test the

 
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A Theoretical Analysis of the "Grid Pricing" Structure of the Beef Carcass Market
Michelle Beshear and James Trapp
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Carcass prices for varying yield and quality grades of fed cattle were estimated using five years of USDA reported prices for wholesale meat cuts. The estimated carcass prices were analyzed to determine seasonal patterns. Additionally, two samples of indi

 
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Effects of Competition and Space on Country Elevator Grading Practices and Prices
Wes Elliott, Brian D. Adam, Phil Kenkel, and Kim Anderson
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Kenkel and Anderson (1977) found that grade information recorded on scale tickets by Oklahoma elevators tended to overestimate test-weight and underestimate dockage and other undesirable grade factors for hard red winter wheat in the 1995 and 1996 harvest

 
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Basis Patterns for Feeder Cattle Teleauctions in Georgia
Steven C. Turner, Timothy A. Park, and John McKissick
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

The factors that influence feeder cattle basis were investigated using data from two Georgia teleauctions for the period from 1979 to 1994. A major goal was to use the models to forecast out-of-sample basis for individual lots of feeder cattle. These fore

 
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Estimating Expected Per Acre Indemnities of Yield and Revenue Insurance Products
Chad Hart, Samarendu Mohanty, and Darnell B. Smith
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

This study estimates average per acre indemnity payments for Iowa corn for traditional multiple-peril crop insurance and two revenue insurance products, Crop Revenue Coverage and Income Protection. Yield and price difference distributions are formed and e

 
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Crop Insurance and Forward Pricing Linkages: Effects on Mean Income and Variance
Kevin C. Dhuyvetter and Terry L. Kastens
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Revenue was simulated for dryland wheat farms in Kansas using historical yields, prices, and estimated within-year yield variance for different crop insurance policies and pre-harvest hedging strategies. Crop insurance alternatives considered were no insu

 
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Optimizing Farmers' Joint Use of Forward Pricing and Crop Insurance by Comparing Revenue Distributions Estimated with Numerical Integration
Richard Heifner and Keith Coble
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Because the distributions of crop yields, prices, and revenues generally are skewed, and because the payoffs from crop insurance and put options follow censored distributions, there is no reason to expect that crop producers' incomes approach the normalit

 
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Corn and Soybean Basis Behavior and Forecasting: Fundamental and Alternative Approaches
Bingrong Jiang and Marvin Hayenga
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

This basis study covers corn and soybean markets across the U.S. Corn and soybean bases have seasonal patterns, as does the relative importance of factors (storage costs, barge rates, production levels) determining the basis. Corn and soybean basis behavi

 
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The 'New' Live Cattle Futures Contract: Basis Issues
Rob Murphy and Keith Boris
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Practical issues for live cattle basis calculation are explored. Significant differences were found when cash volume weights and mean futures prices were used in basis calculations rather than equal weighting and settlement futures prices. Using settlemen

 
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Did Producer Hedging Opportunities in the Live Hog Contract Decline?
Fabio C. Zanini and Philip Garcia
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

The paper assesses the usefulness of selective hedging strategies when combined with forecast techniques in the live hog contract. The use of routine futures and options hedging is not attractive relative to a cash-only strategy. However, forecasting and

 
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Producers' Preferences for Market Outlook Information
James D. Sartwelle III, Daniel M. O'Brien, and Walter Barker
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

This study evaluates western Kansas grain and livestock producers' preferences for market outlook information and marketing education. Producers were surveyed as to the types and sources of market outlook information they preferred to incorporate into the

 
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Research Topics Suggested by Extension Marketing Economists
B. Wade Brorsen and Kim Anderson
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Extension marketing economists were surveyed and asked what they considered to be the most important unanswered research question in agricultural marketing. The most frequent response was marketing strategies that increase income, reduce risk, or both. Th

 
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Perceptions of Marketing Strategies: Producers vs. Extension Economists
Joseph Parcell, Ted Schroeder, Terry Kastens, and Kevin Dhuyvetter
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Extension marketing economists commit substantial resources to outlook and market analysis. Producers demand this information and use it to make marketing decisions. This study analyzes responses to a marketing question survey of producers and Extension m

 
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Cheddar Cheese and Fluid Milk Cointegration among Cash and Futures Prices: The Evidence for a Long-term Equilibrium Relationship
Cameron S. Thraen and Krassimir Petrov
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

In the early 1990's, after four decades of relying on government mandated minimum price supports and public stockholding to achieve price risk management, the United States dairy industry is undertaking a shift to a market clearing equilibrium system. A s

 
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Noise Trader Sentiment and Futures Price Behavior: An Empirical Investigation
Dwight R. Sanders, Scott H. Irwin, and Raymond M. Leuthold
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

The noise trader sentiment model of DeLong, Shleifer, Summers, and Waldman (1990a) is applied to futures markets. The theoretical results predict that overly optimistic (pessimistic) noise traders result in market prices that are greater (less) than funda

 
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Optimal Marketing Decisions for Cattle under Price Risk
Xuecai Wang, Jeffrey H. Dorfman, John McKissick, and Steven C. Turner
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Optimal marketing decisions for cattle in Georgia are of critical importance to the profitability and continued economic survival of producers because of the low profit margins common to cattle production in the Southeast. Many Georgia producers sell calv

 
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Pricing an OTC Basket Option to Manage Cattle Price Risk in Canada: Comparing the Cost of COPP and of a CME-Based "2 Legs" Strategy
Francesco Braga
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

A put option covering the risk of a decrease in the Canadian dollar value of a U.S. live cattle futures price is offered over the counter to Canadian cattlemen. The empirical results confirm that the pricing of the over the counter derivative is consisten

 
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An Analysis of the Effect of Corn Prices on Feeder Cattle Prices
John D. Anderson and James N. Trapp
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

This study develops the concept of a corn price multiplier which quantifies the effect of a change in corn price on feeder cattle price. Estimation of the multiplier is accomplished using a partial adjustment model of feeder calf prices which directly inc

 
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Futures-Based Price Forecasts for Agricultural Producers and Businesses
Terry Kastens, Rodney Jones, and Ted Schroeder
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

This study examines the accuracy of five competing naive and futures-based localized cash price forecasts. The third week's price for each month from 1987-1996 is forecasted from vantage points one to 11 months preceding the observed price. Commodities ex

 
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The Forecasting Value of New Crop Futures: A Decision-Making Framework
Dwight Sanders, Phil Garcia, and Raymond Leuthold
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

The statistical forecasting efficiency of new crop corn and soybean futures is the topic of frequent academic inquiry. However, few studies address the usefulness of these forecasts to economic agents' decision-making. Each year Central Illinois producers

 
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Producer Ability to Forecast Harvest Corn and Soybean Prices
David Kenyon
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Corn and soybean producers' most likely low and high harvest price expectations were obtained in January and February each year from 1991-1996. Average expectations missed corn prices by $0.23-0.65 per bushel and missed soybean prices by $0.51-1.04 per bu

 
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A Reexamination of a Popular Econometric Model of Pork Supply and Forecasting Performance vs. ARIMA and Composite Approaches
John Nwoha, Mark Manfredo, Mark Ditsch, and Raymond Leuthold
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

A Quarterly Model of the Livestock Industry by Richard P. Stillman provides a classic example of a structural model of key stages of pork production. Since the publication of the Stillman model in 1985, hog production has moved toward greater industrializ

 
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Development of Alternative Wheat and Corn Price Forecasting Models
Daniel O'Brien and Robert Wisner
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Models of U.S. corn and wheat prices are estimated for the purpose of making forecasts of futures and average cash prices. The supply-demand based price models developed are based on economic theory with attention given to the econometric properties of bo

 
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Forecasting Retail-Farm Margins for Fresh Tomatoes: Econometrics vs. Neural Networks
Timothy Richards, Pieter van Ispelen, and Albert Kagan
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

This study compares the forecasting ability of an econometric and neural-network model of fresh tomato retail-farm margins over the period 1980-94. Tests of forecast accuracy show that the neural-network significantly outperforms the econometric model, wh

 
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Systematic Hog Price Management: Selective Hedging and Long-Term Risk Sharing Packer Contracts
John Lawrence and Zhi Wang
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

In addition to futures and options markets, long-term risk sharing hog procurement contracts offered by packers provide some degree of price risk protection for pork producers. The window contract and a moving average hedging strategy generated similar av

 
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Design and Pricing of Short Term Hog Marketing Contracts
James Unterschultz, Frank Novak, Donald Bresee, and Stephen Koontz
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Risk research has not addressed the theoretical and empirical implications of window contracts in the hog industry. Short term window contracts are modeled here as portfolios of puts and calls. A confidence interval approach and a break even approach are

 
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Managed Futures, Positive Feedback Trading, and Futures Price Volatility
Scott Irwin and Sakoto Yoshimaru
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to provide new evidence on the impact of managed futures trading on futures price volatility. A unique data set on managed futures trading is analyzed for the period December 1, 1998 through March 31, 1989. The data set includ

 
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Stress Testing Portfolios to Measure the Risk Faced by Futures Clearinghouses
Roger D. Fuhrman
Year: 1997
 

Abstract

Clearinghouses at organized exchanges provide clearing, settlement and risk management systems in supporting exchange traded futures and options. As the exchanges have grown for several decades, questions regarding contract performance and client protecti

 
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