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| Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint
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| William G. Tomek and Robert J. Myers |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Discussion: Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Prices: A Viewpoint
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| David A. Bessler |
| Year: 1993 |
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Abstract
I congratulate Professors Tomek and Myers on a fine review of "structural" and "time series" methods as applied to the econometric analysis of agricultural commodity prices. Further, I second their list of recommendations for improved practice in the field of price analysis. My discussion covers two points. First, I discuss their paper from the perspective of Kuhn's model of "Scientific Revolutions". Perhaps the two major modeling efforts described in their paper can be understood as alternative paradigms. Viewing the subject from this perspective may help us see the future of applied price analysis. Second, I comment on their use of the word structure. I argue that it will be difficult for us to obtain structure from either Tomek and Myers' "structural models" or their "time series" models. This may show up in our work as fragile parameter estimates and is due to the "omitted variables" problem. While I offer no solution to the problem, I make one suggestion which may help in some settings.
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| Analysis of Producer Pricing Methods
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| Ted Schroeder and Barry Goodwin |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Dynamic Relationships in the U.S. Lamb Marketing Channel
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| Rodney Jones, Wayne D. Purcell, and Anya McGuirk |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| The Forecasting of Prices and Protein Premiums for PNW Hard Red Winter and Dark Northern Spring Wheat
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| John Carlson, David Bullock, Jim Johnson, Steve Stauber, and Charles McGuire |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Hedging with Commodity Options and Safety-First Rules
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| James Vercammen and Victor Gaspar |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market
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| Raymond M. Leuthold, Philip Garcia, and Richard Lu |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Sources and Structure of Profit Risk in Cattle Feeding
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| Stephen R. Koontz and James N. Trapp |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Storage Hedging: What's a Merchandiser to Do?
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| Brian D. Adam, Kim Anderson, and Roger Sahs |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| The Cost of Forward Contracting Wheat
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| B. Wade Brorsen, John Coombs, and Kim Anderson |
| Year: 1993 |
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Abstract
One of the basic principles of economics is that there is no such thing as a free lunch. In regard to forward contracting, we might expect the same. A farmer who forward contracts wheat is receiving a service. The farmer is protected from price risk. The grain company takes care of paperwork, default risk, futures commission, margin calls, and basis risk. However, the grain company also benefits because the grain company has a known source of grain at a known price. Thus, economic theory cannot say for certain that a farmer who always forward contracts will, on average, receive less than a farmer who always sells at harvest. Barkley and Schroeder derive a theoretical model of forward contracting with live cattle and argue that who pays the cost of forward contracting is an question. Therefore, this paper reports a study of Gulf forward basis bids for hard red winter wheat which sought to determine what on average a farmer is paying for the service of forward contracting.
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| The Market Efficiency of Options on Corn Futures
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| Sergio H. Lence |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Distilling Option Premium Information Into Simple Decision Rules
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| John D. Lawrence and Seth Meyer |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Mean Reversion in the Corn and Hog Bases
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| Robert Leads, Carl Zulauf, Scott Irwin, Thomas Jackson, and William Distad |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Grain Markets after the Conservation Reserve Program
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| Carl Garrison, Brian Adam, B. Wade Brorsen, and Mike Dicks |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Impacts of Elevator Concentration on Local Basis
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| T. Randall Fortenbery, Hector O. Zapata, and Eugene L. Kunda |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Technical Analysis of Commodity Price Behavior
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| Joel Fingerman |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Chaos Theory and Its Implications for Research on Futures Markets: A Review of the Literature
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| John Bernard and Deborah Streeter |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| A Comparison of Traditional Livestock Auctions, Teleauctions, and Satellite Video Auctions: Price Differences Between Markets
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| Beth Adams and Steven C. Turner |
| Year: 1993 |
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Abstract
Research was conducted comparing the price differences observed in traditional livestock auctions, teleauctions, and satellite video auctions. Several significant price ; diferences were found to exist between the three auction markets. The largest and most significant differences occurred between the teleauctions and the local sale barn suction and between the satellite video auction and the local sale barn auction. Price determination results of this study were found to be similar to previous price determination studies. The price differences are believed to be the result of the differing emphasis that is placed on various cattle characteristics in each of these markets. This study tests the relevant variables which determine the price differences between the three markets using data from each of the cattle auctions.
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| Methods for Selecting Delivery or Cash Settlement Arrangements for Agricultural Futures Contracts: The Case of Live Cattle
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| Gerald E. Plato, Richard G. Heifner, and Phil L. Colling |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Do Japanese Soybean Futures Markets Respond to the USDA Crop Production Report?
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| Phil L. Colling |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| The Importance of Inventory in Short-Run Beef Market Analysis
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| Kevin J. Bacon, James N. Trapp, Steven Meyer, and Kevin Smith |
| Year: 1993 |
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Abstract
This study of presents evidence that inventories of market ready fed cattle (showlists) have a stronger influence on weekly slaughter cattle prices than do slaughter levels. Three data sources were used to test the relative correlation strength between showlist and price versus slaughter and price. These sources were: a) output from a fed beef market experiential learning simulator; b) publicly reported data; and c) private data from feedlot closeout records.
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| Forecasting the Probability Distributions of U.S. Harvest Time Corn Prices
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| Dan O'Brien, Marvin Hayenga, and Bruce Babcock |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Trade Impacts of Soviet Reform: A Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Approach
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| Dermot J. Hayes, Alexander Kumi, and S. R. Johnson |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Constant or Time-Varying Optimal Hedge Ratios?
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| Giancarlo Moschini and Satheesh Aradhyula |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| Futures Trading with a Neural Network
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| Lonnie Hamm, B. Wade Brorsen, and Ramesh Sharda |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| GARCH Option Pricing with Asymmetry
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| Taehoon Kang and B. Wade Brorsen |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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| The Risk Premium in Live Cattle Futures
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| Emmett Elam and Stephen Njukia |
| Year: 1993 |
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No Abstract Available |
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Click here for a copy of the paper in Adobe's PDF format.
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